Jurchens vs Tatars
Jurchens win 52% (50 to 55) (even); Tatars, 48%.
79 1v1 games between the two civs. How Tatars do against everyone
By map
| Map | Jurchens win | Games |
|---|---|---|
| All maps | 52% (50 to 55) · even | 79 |
| Arabia | 54% (51 to 57) | 14 |
| Arena | 49% (45 to 53) · even | 8 |
| Black Forest | 51% (47 to 55) · even | 3 |
| Nomad | 53% (49 to 57) · even | estimated |
By game length
This is what happened, not a recipe: game length is an outcome of the game (games decided early are short).
Jurchens win more in short games: 61% at under 20 min, 49% at 55 min or more.
How it's calculated
- Ranked random-map games from the current patch, without mirrors or games under 5 in-game minutes.
- First the players' Elo difference is removed, so what's left comes from the civs: chances are at equal Elo.
- A model adds up the strength of each civ and each matchup by map, Elo band and length; whatever has few games stays close to the overall number, so a cell with 4 games doesn't make things up.
- The range is where 90% of the likely values fall. It's even if it touches 50%, and for game length something is only claimed if the shortest and longest bands don't touch.
- Length is in minutes of the game's clock.
Source: aoe2-guide, games from 2026-06-01 to 2026-07-03, patch Update 185872. 328,369 1v1 games and 162,421 team games.