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Bulgarians vs Tatars

Bulgarians win 51% (48 to 54) (even); Tatars, 49%.

358 1v1 games between the two civs. How Tatars do against everyone

By map

MapBulgarians winGames
All maps51% (48 to 54) · even358
Arabia52% (49 to 55) · even85
Arena47% (43 to 51) · even33
Black Forest50% (47 to 54) · even24
Nomad52% (49 to 56) · evenestimated

By game length

This is what happened, not a recipe: game length is an outcome of the game (games decided early are short).

Bulgarians win more in short games: 64% at under 20 min, 48% at 55 min or more.

30 %40 %50 %60 %70 %under 20 min35 games20 to 30 min39 games30 to 40 min78 games40 to 55 min146 games55 min or more60 games
under 20 min: Bulgarians win 64% (61 to 67), 35 games20 to 30 min: Bulgarians win 59% (55 to 62), 39 games30 to 40 min: Bulgarians win 49% (44 to 53) (even), 78 games40 to 55 min: Bulgarians win 47% (44 to 51) (even), 146 games55 min or more: Bulgarians win 48% (45 to 50) (even), 60 games

How it's calculated

  • Ranked random-map games from the current patch, without mirrors or games under 5 in-game minutes.
  • First the players' Elo difference is removed, so what's left comes from the civs: chances are at equal Elo.
  • A model adds up the strength of each civ and each matchup by map, Elo band and length; whatever has few games stays close to the overall number, so a cell with 4 games doesn't make things up.
  • The range is where 90% of the likely values fall. It's even if it touches 50%, and for game length something is only claimed if the shortest and longest bands don't touch.
  • Length is in minutes of the game's clock.

Source: aoe2-guide, games from 2026-06-01 to 2026-07-03, patch Update 185872. 328,369 1v1 games and 162,421 team games.