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Celts vs Mapuche

Celts win 52% (49 to 55) (even); Mapuche, 48%.

29 1v1 games between the two civs. How Mapuche do against everyone

By map

MapCelts winGames
All maps52% (49 to 55) · even29
Arabia53% (49 to 57) · even7
Arena52% (47 to 57) · evenestimated
Black Forest51% (47 to 55) · even2
Nomad52% (48 to 56) · evenestimated

By game length

This is what happened, not a recipe: game length is an outcome of the game (games decided early are short).

No clear difference by game length.

30 %40 %50 %60 %70 %under 20 min4 games20 to 30 min5 games30 to 40 min5 games40 to 55 min12 games55 min or more3 games
under 20 min: Celts win 56% (50 to 62) (even), 4 games20 to 30 min: Celts win 51% (46 to 55) (even), 5 games30 to 40 min: Celts win 48% (45 to 52) (even), 5 games40 to 55 min: Celts win 56% (51 to 60), 12 games55 min or more: Celts win 49% (44 to 54) (even), 3 games

How it's calculated

  • Ranked random-map games from the current patch, without mirrors or games under 5 in-game minutes.
  • First the players' Elo difference is removed, so what's left comes from the civs: chances are at equal Elo.
  • A model adds up the strength of each civ and each matchup by map, Elo band and length; whatever has few games stays close to the overall number, so a cell with 4 games doesn't make things up.
  • The range is where 90% of the likely values fall. It's even if it touches 50%, and for game length something is only claimed if the shortest and longest bands don't touch.
  • Length is in minutes of the game's clock.

Source: aoe2-guide, games from 2026-06-01 to 2026-07-03, patch Update 185872. 328,369 1v1 games and 162,421 team games.