AoE2 BO Coach
…

Goths vs Jurchens

Goths win 47% (45 to 50); Jurchens, 53%.

105 1v1 games between the two civs. How Jurchens do against everyone

By map

MapGoths winGames
All maps47% (45 to 50)105
Arabia47% (43 to 50) · even31
Arena48% (44 to 51) · even7
Black Forest47% (44 to 51) · even3
Nomad47% (44 to 50) · evenestimated

By game length

This is what happened, not a recipe: game length is an outcome of the game (games decided early are short).

No clear difference by game length.

30 %40 %50 %60 %70 %under 20 min10 games20 to 30 min16 games30 to 40 min27 games40 to 55 min36 games55 min or more16 games
under 20 min: Goths win 41% (35 to 46), 10 games20 to 30 min: Goths win 47% (44 to 49), 16 games30 to 40 min: Goths win 47% (44 to 51) (even), 27 games40 to 55 min: Goths win 48% (45 to 51) (even), 36 games55 min or more: Goths win 49% (45 to 53) (even), 16 games

How it's calculated

  • Ranked random-map games from the current patch, without mirrors or games under 5 in-game minutes.
  • First the players' Elo difference is removed, so what's left comes from the civs: chances are at equal Elo.
  • A model adds up the strength of each civ and each matchup by map, Elo band and length; whatever has few games stays close to the overall number, so a cell with 4 games doesn't make things up.
  • The range is where 90% of the likely values fall. It's even if it touches 50%, and for game length something is only claimed if the shortest and longest bands don't touch.
  • Length is in minutes of the game's clock.

Source: aoe2-guide, games from 2026-06-01 to 2026-07-03, patch Update 185872. 328,369 1v1 games and 162,421 team games.