Japanese vs Mapuche

Japanese win 49% (46 to 52) (even); Mapuche, 51%.

108 1v1 games between the two civs. How Mapuche do against everyone

By map

Map	Japanese win	Games
All maps	49% (46 to 52) · even	108
Arabia	49% (45 to 53) · even	23
Arena	48% (44 to 53) · even	7
Black Forest	49% (45 to 53) · even	3
Nomad	49% (43 to 55) · even	estimated

By game length

This is what happened, not a recipe: game length is an outcome of the game (games decided early are short).

MapElo

No clear difference by game length.

under 20 min: Japanese win 50% (45 to 55) (even), 10 games20 to 30 min: Japanese win 45% (41 to 49), 16 games30 to 40 min: Japanese win 47% (41 to 52) (even), 26 games40 to 55 min: Japanese win 52% (49 to 56) (even), 39 games55 min or more: Japanese win 49% (45 to 54) (even), 17 games

How it's calculated

Ranked random-map games from the current patch, without mirrors or games under 5 in-game minutes.
First the players' Elo difference is removed, so what's left comes from the civs: chances are at equal Elo.
A model adds up the strength of each civ and each matchup by map, Elo band and length; whatever has few games stays close to the overall number, so a cell with 4 games doesn't make things up.
The range is where 90% of the likely values fall. It's even if it touches 50%, and for game length something is only claimed if the shortest and longest bands don't touch.
Length is in minutes of the game's clock.

Source: aoe2-guide, games from 2026-06-01 to 2026-07-03, patch Update 185872. 328,369 1v1 games and 162,421 team games.