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Malay vs Mapuche

Malay win 52% (50 to 55) (even); Mapuche, 48%.

64 1v1 games between the two civs. How Mapuche do against everyone

By map

MapMalay winGames
All maps52% (50 to 55) · even64
Arabia52% (49 to 56) · even17
Arena53% (49 to 57) · even3
Black Forest52% (48 to 56) · even3
Nomad52% (48 to 56) · evenestimated

By game length

This is what happened, not a recipe: game length is an outcome of the game (games decided early are short).

No clear difference by game length.

30 %40 %50 %60 %70 %under 20 min5 games20 to 30 min17 games30 to 40 min11 games40 to 55 min22 games55 min or more9 games
under 20 min: Malay win 51% (46 to 56) (even), 5 games20 to 30 min: Malay win 53% (48 to 59) (even), 17 games30 to 40 min: Malay win 54% (50 to 57), 11 games40 to 55 min: Malay win 54% (50 to 57) (even), 22 games55 min or more: Malay win 49% (45 to 54) (even), 9 games

How it's calculated

  • Ranked random-map games from the current patch, without mirrors or games under 5 in-game minutes.
  • First the players' Elo difference is removed, so what's left comes from the civs: chances are at equal Elo.
  • A model adds up the strength of each civ and each matchup by map, Elo band and length; whatever has few games stays close to the overall number, so a cell with 4 games doesn't make things up.
  • The range is where 90% of the likely values fall. It's even if it touches 50%, and for game length something is only claimed if the shortest and longest bands don't touch.
  • Length is in minutes of the game's clock.

Source: aoe2-guide, games from 2026-06-01 to 2026-07-03, patch Update 185872. 328,369 1v1 games and 162,421 team games.