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Bulgarians vs Mongols

Bulgarians win 52% (50 to 55) (even); Mongols, 48%.

452 1v1 games between the two civs. How Mongols do against everyone

By map

MapBulgarians winGames
All maps52% (50 to 55) · even452
Arabia52% (49 to 55) · even79
Arena49% (47 to 52) · even45
Black Forest53% (50 to 56) · even27
Nomad52% (48 to 57) · evenestimated

By game length

This is what happened, not a recipe: game length is an outcome of the game (games decided early are short).

No clear difference by game length.

30 %40 %50 %60 %70 %under 20 min55 games20 to 30 min58 games30 to 40 min93 games40 to 55 min161 games55 min or more85 games
under 20 min: Bulgarians win 58% (55 to 62), 55 games20 to 30 min: Bulgarians win 53% (48 to 57) (even), 58 games30 to 40 min: Bulgarians win 47% (44 to 51) (even), 93 games40 to 55 min: Bulgarians win 52% (49 to 55) (even), 161 games55 min or more: Bulgarians win 55% (52 to 58), 85 games

How it's calculated

  • Ranked random-map games from the current patch, without mirrors or games under 5 in-game minutes.
  • First the players' Elo difference is removed, so what's left comes from the civs: chances are at equal Elo.
  • A model adds up the strength of each civ and each matchup by map, Elo band and length; whatever has few games stays close to the overall number, so a cell with 4 games doesn't make things up.
  • The range is where 90% of the likely values fall. It's even if it touches 50%, and for game length something is only claimed if the shortest and longest bands don't touch.
  • Length is in minutes of the game's clock.

Source: aoe2-guide, games from 2026-06-01 to 2026-07-03, patch Update 185872. 328,369 1v1 games and 162,421 team games.