Celts vs Cumans
Celts win 51% (48 to 54) (even); Cumans, 49%.
120 1v1 games between the two civs. How Cumans do against everyone
By map
| Map | Celts win | Games |
|---|---|---|
| All maps | 51% (48 to 54) · even | 120 |
| Arabia | 51% (48 to 54) · even | 18 |
| Arena | 51% (47 to 55) · even | 3 |
| Black Forest | 48% (43 to 52) · even | 9 |
| Nomad | 50% (47 to 54) · even | estimated |
By game length
This is what happened, not a recipe: game length is an outcome of the game (games decided early are short).
Celts win more in short games: 59% at under 20 min, 46% at 55 min or more.
How it's calculated
- Ranked random-map games from the current patch, without mirrors or games under 5 in-game minutes.
- First the players' Elo difference is removed, so what's left comes from the civs: chances are at equal Elo.
- A model adds up the strength of each civ and each matchup by map, Elo band and length; whatever has few games stays close to the overall number, so a cell with 4 games doesn't make things up.
- The range is where 90% of the likely values fall. It's even if it touches 50%, and for game length something is only claimed if the shortest and longest bands don't touch.
- Length is in minutes of the game's clock.
Source: aoe2-guide, games from 2026-06-01 to 2026-07-03, patch Update 185872. 328,369 1v1 games and 162,421 team games.