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Ethiopians vs Gurjaras

Ethiopians win 46% (44 to 49); Gurjaras, 54%.

193 1v1 games between the two civs. How Gurjaras do against everyone

By map

MapEthiopians winGames
All maps46% (44 to 49)193
Arabia49% (45 to 53) · even36
Arena44% (39 to 48)30
Black Forest44% (40 to 48)14
Nomad48% (43 to 53) · evenestimated

By game length

This is what happened, not a recipe: game length is an outcome of the game (games decided early are short).

Ethiopians win more in short games: 58% at under 20 min, 47% at 55 min or more.

30 %40 %50 %60 %70 %under 20 min9 games20 to 30 min45 games30 to 40 min41 games40 to 55 min60 games55 min or more38 games
under 20 min: Ethiopians win 58% (53 to 63), 9 games20 to 30 min: Ethiopians win 49% (45 to 53) (even), 45 games30 to 40 min: Ethiopians win 40% (37 to 43), 41 games40 to 55 min: Ethiopians win 45% (41 to 49), 60 games55 min or more: Ethiopians win 47% (43 to 52) (even), 38 games

How it's calculated

  • Ranked random-map games from the current patch, without mirrors or games under 5 in-game minutes.
  • First the players' Elo difference is removed, so what's left comes from the civs: chances are at equal Elo.
  • A model adds up the strength of each civ and each matchup by map, Elo band and length; whatever has few games stays close to the overall number, so a cell with 4 games doesn't make things up.
  • The range is where 90% of the likely values fall. It's even if it touches 50%, and for game length something is only claimed if the shortest and longest bands don't touch.
  • Length is in minutes of the game's clock.

Source: aoe2-guide, games from 2026-06-01 to 2026-07-03, patch Update 185872. 328,369 1v1 games and 162,421 team games.