Goths vs Italians
Goths win 48% (46 to 50) (even); Italians, 52%.
287 1v1 games between the two civs. How Italians do against everyone
By map
| Map | Goths win | Games |
|---|---|---|
| All maps | 48% (46 to 50) · even | 287 |
| Arabia | 49% (45 to 52) · even | 61 |
| Arena | 49% (45 to 53) · even | 14 |
| Black Forest | 49% (46 to 52) · even | 11 |
| Nomad | 48% (43 to 52) · even | estimated |
By game length
This is what happened, not a recipe: game length is an outcome of the game (games decided early are short).
Goths win more in long games: 42% at under 20 min, 52% at 55 min or more.
How it's calculated
- Ranked random-map games from the current patch, without mirrors or games under 5 in-game minutes.
- First the players' Elo difference is removed, so what's left comes from the civs: chances are at equal Elo.
- A model adds up the strength of each civ and each matchup by map, Elo band and length; whatever has few games stays close to the overall number, so a cell with 4 games doesn't make things up.
- The range is where 90% of the likely values fall. It's even if it touches 50%, and for game length something is only claimed if the shortest and longest bands don't touch.
- Length is in minutes of the game's clock.
Source: aoe2-guide, games from 2026-06-01 to 2026-07-03, patch Update 185872. 328,369 1v1 games and 162,421 team games.