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Inca vs Saracens

Inca win 56% (53 to 58); Saracens, 44%.

251 1v1 games between the two civs. How Saracens do against everyone

By map

MapInca winGames
All maps56% (53 to 58)251
Arabia56% (52 to 59)46
Arena57% (53 to 61)18
Black Forest54% (50 to 58) · even12
Nomad56% (51 to 61)estimated

By game length

This is what happened, not a recipe: game length is an outcome of the game (games decided early are short).

No clear difference by game length.

30 %40 %50 %60 %70 %under 20 min14 games20 to 30 min26 games30 to 40 min46 games40 to 55 min111 games55 min or more54 games
under 20 min: Inca win 58% (53 to 63), 14 games20 to 30 min: Inca win 61% (59 to 64), 26 games30 to 40 min: Inca win 55% (51 to 59), 46 games40 to 55 min: Inca win 55% (52 to 59), 111 games55 min or more: Inca win 52% (48 to 55) (even), 54 games

How it's calculated

  • Ranked random-map games from the current patch, without mirrors or games under 5 in-game minutes.
  • First the players' Elo difference is removed, so what's left comes from the civs: chances are at equal Elo.
  • A model adds up the strength of each civ and each matchup by map, Elo band and length; whatever has few games stays close to the overall number, so a cell with 4 games doesn't make things up.
  • The range is where 90% of the likely values fall. It's even if it touches 50%, and for game length something is only claimed if the shortest and longest bands don't touch.
  • Length is in minutes of the game's clock.

Source: aoe2-guide, games from 2026-06-01 to 2026-07-03, patch Update 185872. 328,369 1v1 games and 162,421 team games.