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Inca vs Tupi

Inca win 51% (47 to 54) (even); Tupi, 49%.

83 1v1 games between the two civs. How Tupi do against everyone

By map

MapInca winGames
All maps51% (47 to 54) · even83
Arabia51% (47 to 55) · even30
Arena52% (47 to 56) · even4
Black Forest51% (46 to 55) · even4
Nomad51% (47 to 55) · evenestimated

By game length

This is what happened, not a recipe: game length is an outcome of the game (games decided early are short).

No clear difference by game length.

30 %40 %50 %60 %70 %under 20 min3 games20 to 30 min13 games30 to 40 min26 games40 to 55 min27 games55 min or more14 games
under 20 min: Inca win 55% (50 to 61), 3 games20 to 30 min: Inca win 50% (44 to 55) (even), 13 games30 to 40 min: Inca win 47% (42 to 52) (even), 26 games40 to 55 min: Inca win 53% (48 to 57) (even), 27 games55 min or more: Inca win 50% (45 to 56) (even), 14 games

How it's calculated

  • Ranked random-map games from the current patch, without mirrors or games under 5 in-game minutes.
  • First the players' Elo difference is removed, so what's left comes from the civs: chances are at equal Elo.
  • A model adds up the strength of each civ and each matchup by map, Elo band and length; whatever has few games stays close to the overall number, so a cell with 4 games doesn't make things up.
  • The range is where 90% of the likely values fall. It's even if it touches 50%, and for game length something is only claimed if the shortest and longest bands don't touch.
  • Length is in minutes of the game's clock.

Source: aoe2-guide, games from 2026-06-01 to 2026-07-03, patch Update 185872. 328,369 1v1 games and 162,421 team games.